Probably the best strategy to improve your scouting: Breaking biases

As humans, we naturally have biases. While they can provide shortcuts to understanding the world, biases can also lead to errors in decision-making. Actively acknowledging and overcoming biases improves the accuracy of player selection, increasing the chances of making better recruiting decisions.

Ten common biases in player recruitment

We’ve identified ten specific biases that frequently emerge within scouting teams. Each bias represents a specific cognitive tendency or pattern of thinking that can lead to errors in judgment or decision-making. 

#1: Confirmation Bias

The tendency to favor information confirming existing preconceptions.

For example, if a scout once said a player is very suitable for a club, they tend to oversee evidence that proves them wrong.

#2: Anchoring Bias

Relying too heavily on the first piece of information received.

For example, a scout heard from a colleague that a bigger club follows a player, so when the scout evaluates the player, they tend to overrate him.

#3: Recency Bias

Giving more weight to recent performances.

For example, a scout overestimates the importance of a player's last performance evaluation and underestimates the importance of previous ones.

#4: Halo Effect

Generalizing a player’s positive traits across all aspects.

For example, suppose a player showcases exceptional set-piece delivery. In that case, it might be assumed that they are also very good at delivering crosses in open play without seeing evidence when evaluating him.

#5: Similarity Bias

Preferring players who resemble previous successful ones.

For example, a club may favor a new striker mainly because their style or appearance mirrors a previously successful striker, even though there are definite differences that could turn out less positively.

#6: Overconfidence Bias

Overestimating one’s ability to predict a player’s future success.

For example, a scout or decision maker may proclaim that a player will become a success at their club, disregarding the unpredictable nature of player fit and development.

#7: Optimism Bias

Being overly optimistic about a player’s potential, ignoring warning signs.

For example, a club might ignore a player’s consistent poor form, hoping their past success will resurface without addressing underlying issues.

#8: Selection bias

There is an absence of a representative sample from which to draw conclusions.

For example, a scout is positive about a player after watching three matches, all played at home against weaker teams.

#9: Sample Size Bias

Underestimating variance in outcomes if an opinion is based on a small sample size.

For example, a scout may have watched a player in only one match but be convinced he is the ideal signing for the club.

#10: Contextual influence bias

Underestimating the contextual factors that influence performances or outcomes.

For example, a scout may write a negative report about a player but not assign enough weight to contextual factors, like the bad pitch conditions, the team’s tactics, or the injury he just recovered from.

Effective remedies for overcoming biases in football scouting 

To tackle these biases, football clubs can adopt the following strategies.

1. Awareness and education

2. Blind scouting process

3. Diverse scouting teams

4. Consult external opinions

On our blog, we give more details on these strategies.

Ready to take your scouting skills to the next level?

In the last few years, we’ve seen how many people have the ambition to start working as a (remote) video scout. With our application procedures, we’ve been offering a unique pathway into football. However, due to the high number of participants and the limited number of clubs we cooperate with, we can only take on board about 1%. The other 99% of aspiring scouts also have a lot of ambition and potential. That’s why we have created a football scouting course. 

Our course, ‘Video Scouting Insights,’ is designed to help you become a better video scout by mastering the most critical concepts of football scouting.

You can find all the information about the course here. We still have a few open spots for the course starting at the end of September (and the other courses this year start in October and November). Don't miss out on this opportunity to advance your scouting career!

Best regards,

Marco van der Heide,

founder of 360 Scouting